a tad spicey tomorrow
Reivers Dustin
11/16/20 #28065

The barnacle run at 10 should be cool. Bring phat boat. Going at noon is maybe for the youngsters under 60.

gsouthstone
11/16/20 #28067

Cliff Maas refers to the weather event as
“A Meteorological “Bomb” Will Hit Northern Vancouver Island On Tuesday”, a “5-10 year event”.
The NW weather guru has spoken, read his blog. Watch the barometer plunge tomorrow. My barometers' lowest reading last winter was 982.
Batten Down
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

Paul Reavley
11/16/20 #28068

For some of us this one may be one to grab by the tail instead of the horns (as Reivers' Uncle Claude recommended). As always timing remains to be seen. Some weather apps show gusts 50-60 mph at 10 am. Others show the main blow arriving later.

I may wait for another day or hope for a drop in wind and gusts in the afternoon with enough time to get on the water. Lake Whatcom?

Reivers Dustin
11/16/20 #28069

I’m seeing it now too. Proly stand in my garage and try to find gear for some other hobby, then give up and mope around the
house until Hilde starts giving me stuff to do. Retirement is not for weenies.

Duncan Howat

11/16/20 #28070

Oh I don't know NOAA is only forecasting wind waves to 7 (seven) feet. Maybe before 10 am, so while the term “Spicy” may undermine and make it sound just kinda slightly above average, in truth it could be by Bellingham standards anyway, on the lower end of “Nuclear”. As Paul says “Just Saying” D

Dennis Mowry
11/16/20 #28071

Here's the forecast from igetwind.com I fine it's very accurate.:D'

https://igetwind.com/#

Kimberly Reeves

11/16/20 #28072

I’ll fire up the computer and watch y’all on the webcam!
Tally ho!

David Hooper
11/16/20 #28073

Yeah, ALL the models on igetwind coalesce around peak winds from ~9 am - 12 noon, with gusts 50-60+ mph. Sure would be fun if we could get the 7 foot waves with only 15-20 knot winds…Just sayin'.

Dave H.

Reivers Dustin

11/17/20 #28074

kinda cool: dead calm this morning when I got up. Noticed the clouds were moving north pretty brisk. Now I'm seeing gusts at my house (sehome ridgeline elevation). The bay cam shows calm flat water, but if you look close, the camera and tower seem to be shaking a little bit. So looks like the wind builds downward from higher elevations. I've noticed before how my house will be shaking and wind is not down on the water.

Duncan Howat
11/17/20 #28075

we all know why your whole house is really shaking.

Duncan Howat
11/17/20 #28076

on another note. Locust Beach wind graft

went from 9mph to 31 mph in less than 30 mi

Reivers Dustin

11/17/20 #28077

hehe! a great compliment. thx dunc. truth is it's bad plumbing. Not the house, but me. I have to jump up and down to make the pee come out anymore. Oh well. like they say: “could get worse, probly will get worse … if you are lucky.”

rd

sirhc dlowtret
11/17/20 #28078

FYI. It does not look Heinous from Chuckanut bay. Decent amount of Eastery to it. I’d likely feel different if I was on the water….

David Hooper
11/17/20 #28079

It was sure ripping an hour ago, right on schedule, gusting to over 60. Now it's comparatively mellow - “only” 34 gusting to 47. Just saw the Electric Foil Guy go by on the webcam. But then, he doesn't have to paddle upwind.

Dave H.

beau whitehead

11/17/20 #28081

Dan M, Colin & I launched from Wildcat (gate was closed there) about 9:15am. Smoke on the water, water blowing off the waves was hitting my face hard enough to hurt. Got scary by Post Point and we decided to bail-out at Marine Park and call for a ride back to Squalicum Beach where our cars were waiting. First time I've ever bailed mid-paddle, but I think it was a wise decision. I must be getting old. I've seen bigger waves on the bay, but the 60mph gusts were knocking them down today and it became more of a survival paddle vs a fun paddle at that point. My fastest mile was 6:15 & I saw 14mph several times.

beau whitehead
11/17/20 #28082

Collins video from today.

https://vimeo.com/480574189

Duncan Howat
11/17/20 #28083

Colin-Beau, great film, those were some of the nicest waves I've seen filmed on the bay. Bellingham Nukes. What did you estimate the tallest waves to be ?

beau whitehead
11/17/20 #28084

That’s a good question and always hard to guesstimate… everything is “overhead” when you are sitting down out there(-: But I’d still say 5-6’ was probably max Duncan.

Tyler Irwin
11/17/20 #28085

That wave at 2:20… wowzers

David Hooper

11/17/20 #28086

Well, you know if they still look big on the GoPro, they were much bigger actually in them. Nice ride, boys.

Question, though: my memory of Rievers telling the story of getting fully lifted out of his boat by a wind vortex in similarly gusty conditions has led me to wonder if, once the wind starts gusting much above ~50, we're just no longer fully in control out there. That is, the wind force can just do unexpected things to your boat and body that can overcome even the best technique. After being out there today at the peak of it, what do you think? Or am I just verging that much closer to barnacleness?

Dave H.

a tad spicey tomorrow
allipp@…
11/18/20 #28087

Chew on this one. At 70 mph, the pressure exerted by wind is 12.5 lbs per square foot. Assuming a surface area of around 20 sq ft of the canoe/ski and another few for your body it should be able to lift well over 250 lbs. at 60 mph the load would be just over 70 percent of that (36/49). That comes out to approximately 185 lbs of force. With Beau at 190 and his canoe at 20 lbs, there's not a whole lot of room for error.

Paul Reavley
11/18/20 #28089

Waterspouts, etc. 2015

Scroll down to M. Medler's and S. Scoggins' comments. “It was definitely interesting to go airborne…” How much safety margin does Steve have?

David Hooper

11/18/20 #28090

Thanks for the link to the relevant thread, Paul. I stand corrected - evidently it was Scoggins, not Rievers, who got lifted by the waterspout. But it also sounds like many folks got blown out of their boats that day. Glad all was well after yesterday's rodeo.

DH

Nicholas Cryder

11/18/20 #28092

I don't head out if it's gusting above 50. The risks are just too high for the low fun factor, and survival paddling kinda sucks. I've noticed it's all but impossible to paddle upwind when it's above 50, so if someone has an issue - they are on their own, and it's essentially a group solo at that point.

It's interesting to think about exactly what gusting means as well. Somedays, it rarely gusts… and then there are days when it's gusting the entire time. My all time days in Bellingham have been low gust vs sustained wind differential. For example; I've noticed with our “big” southerlies, 25 sustained with gusts to 50 is fairly common. That's a 50% differential. A medium sized day is often 18 gusting to low 30's. But when we get the NW winds, they tend to be 25 gusting to 30… so more steady wind, and the conditions are just all-time and super fun (as noted from the NW blow a few weeks ago).

Nicholas Cryder

David Scherrer
11/18/20 #28093

He does have a pilot's license….

Duncan Howat
11/18/20 #28094

I was along side Pizza Steve that fateful day, and saw him get lifted with a 50 + gust, we were headed to harbor,on a bit of a inside line as it looked really wild out where , I think Allan was. We were in line with the community boat center. I said to myself at the time ,“dam I hope he can get back in cus I sure can't do a thing but go forward. But then he was fairly light back in those long remembered days. Don't think it scared him too bad at all. Maybe us all a little. Smaller Wave Dave