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Weather
As Reivers' Uncle Claude1) used to say, “It's better to grab the bull by the tail, not the horns. Then you can let go when you want to.” When a blow is coming through that will provide downwind opportunities, it can be safer to go out after the peak winds have passed and are diminishing rather than early on while the winds are still growing and max roughness of conditions and exact arrival time of peak winds have not yet been determined. But be aware that advantages and disadvantages can vary depending on locale. For example, we have heard that downwind paddlers on Lake Superior prefer the front end of storms “It's best to do a downwind in the building phase of a blow as once it has been going some hours the fast, long-fetch swells become too hard to catch…rounded swell being so frustrating and the remaining wind waves seem to even be blocked from the wind in the troughs, yuk.”
Paddling in Thunderstorms surfski.info 2018
Weather Models and Forecasting
It's not the weather app so much as the model that you choose to use within the app that really matters. In Bellingham, in our experience, the European model (ECMWF) definitely seems to be the most reliable. But these models seem to be most challenged during significantly unsettled weather - particularly in exactly predicting WHEN changes will occur ( or even reach our small zone of usual downwinding if we are just on the edge of some moving system). Know something about which model(s) your app is using (default model, how to change the default, etc.) - we still see long time boating locals who rely too much on the wrong weather prediction models within the apps that they use.
- Educational Weather Blog - blog.weather.us (North and South America)
- Become a Weather Modeling Wonk - weathermodels.com (North and South America)
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Forecast Reliability
One fundamental aspect of using weather apps and weather websites is to understand that none of them are perfect. With use you can learn to identify local weather patterns for which the apps tend to have greater accuracy and patterns which present problems for them (and consequently should lead you to the clear understanding that such problematic patterns result in less predictable conditions on the water and the potential of increased risk for you).
More than a few folks look at “forecasts” a tad too specifically in terms of time and location. If you also look at the map forecast and see that you will be on or near the edge of a clearly or potentially moving system or look at the forecast for the time after your planned outing and see that you are on or close to boundaries of change then you really have no business planning on the exactness and perfection of your forecast after you are on the water. If the forecast model you use usually comes within a decent range of actual weather you encounter and your downwind is predicted to be well within the boundaries of a given predicted weather system, then the forecast there is more likely to be reliable. But always use your own senses and pay attention to what you actually see before and during your paddles AND respond to conditions of potential risk as soon as you become aware of them.
If you check out discussion boards for boaters and sailors you may be able to find some well informed discussions about models and apps, particularly about the higher end features their paid versions provide and how useful users have found them for trip planning, extended trips, etc. in specific areas.
Websites, Apps
- Buoy Weather (initial view is located just west of Wildcat Cove, south of Bellingham)
- PredictWind - requires login but you can save two locations for free, use website or IOS, Android apps
- Tempest Weather Stations map with personal weather station reports
- Windy requires free registration to save favorite locations. Will also send you alerts of weather conditions you specify
- 2016 Extended Table of Marine Apps & Websites - Navigation, weather, tides, ship traffic, water conditions
- Pacific Northwest
- Weather Cafe Rufus La Lone - Longer range forecasts
- Buoy Data
- National Data Buoy Center (address opens to PNW)
- NVS Data Explorer (address opens to PNW)
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Tides & Waves
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Wind Averages
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Measurements/Magnitudes
See Numeric Conversions (mph, m/s, knots, degrees F, C)
Resources
- Arguing About the Weather/Waves
- Pacific Northwest Weather
- Wind Came All Ways excellent resource for understanding Pacific Northwest wind and waves - seems to be out of print and hard to find or very expensive. You may be able to find it in a library although it seems more prevalent in Canadian libraries than in the USA. There is a CD available that includes some of the same information. Order CD
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