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===== Sequim Sea Kayaking Accident =====

[[https://paddling.com/learn/lessons-for-life-tragedy-at-dungeness-bay/|Report on Paddling.com]]

**KOMO News .com\\
duncanhowat** \\
04/13/15 #17209

Wonder what happened to the sea kayakers over at Sequim sat pm, reported yesterday. 2 dead 1 critical. 3 ft waves?

**Dale McKinnon** \\
04/13/15 #17211

Not checking the weather forecast is what happened. A similar scenario to Gunther Frank and Sean Mansfield: Going out without real weather knowledge or how to glean and use in-depth weather information. Both tragedies started out as nice, relatively calm days, and ended up with big fast blows. For Gunther and Sean it happened in the dark. For the folks in Sequim, in the afternoon. Both were accurately predicted, in strength and timing. In both scenarios, the particpants were beyond their skill/experience levels for the conditions that caught them.

It is an unfortunate and painful reminder that knowledge and skill are irreplaceable, intangible attributes to life on our waters. In every single incident of lives lost, or nearly lost, while paddling or sailing in our waters, 90% of the time the weather, usually along with tidal changes, placed unprepared souls into very cold water. If the capsizing (cold shock) didn't end life, then the odds are very high that hypothermia will.

**Nicholas Cryder** \\
04/13/15 #17212

More details in the Seattle Times article.

[[http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/kayakers-killed-at-dungeness-bay-werent-prepared-for-storm/?utm_source=facebook|http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/kayakers-killed-at-dungeness-bay-werent-prepared-for-storm/?utm_source=facebook]]

**duncanhowat** \\
04/13/15 #17213

Just thinking through the critical things needed by these kinds of boaters, and in my experience with the casual boater- back country skier I think this is what would greatly help these people. While spot on forecasts are out there, people won't bear down on them to get the real info. Looks good now, what could possibly go wrong? Life jackets? Not so much. I think one of our greatest protection devices is the leash or leashes. Gotta keep the boat and paddle. Cell phone/water proof radio. These people were in the water 2+ hours before someone at a light house spotted them. Wonder where their boats were? Clothing ? The people in wet suits made it. Others -cotton. Can we change that for the causal boater, I doubt it, but the radio, cell phone could have made the difference and everyone has a cell phone. When I say causal boater, I'm saying someone who doesn't paddle in Puget Sound at least 3-5 days a week. Group mentality,it can be a problem. After over 200 rescues and 50 years in the mountains, I've learned it's difficult to change behavior, but it can absolutely be done through education. D

**John Rybczyk**

04/13/15 #17215

Hit send too fast! Anyway…would be better served and safer in something like a v7. I shudder when I see folks out in sea kayaks without spray skirts. Even with the skirts, can they roll or affect a self rescue/bailout? With a good sit-on-top like the v7, you fall off, you just climb back on. Of course leashes too.

John Rybczyk

**David Scherrer**

04/13/15 #17216

John,\\
I totally agree with all you guys….And I do think a boat like the V7 would be ideal for cold water Puget Sound type paddling. Decked kayaks, with kick up rudders can be a very dangerous boat to be in on large seas.\\
What to do?\\
D.

**Michael Gregory** \\
04/13/15 #17218

Duncan: Good post but, PFD's are soo essential in real rough conditions. I've been off the ski in big confused conditions, getting thrown around like a rag-doll, and puking. Without that PFD, nevermind.

**vanessa haycock** \\
04/13/15 #17219

…. I'm interested in what weather apps people are using and finding to be the most accurate?\\
How can we / I become more skilled in reading forecasts to predict weather changes?

Thanks everyone\\
Vanessa

**Nicholas Cryder**

04/13/15 #17220

I use and love the Wind Alert app / website.

**Dale McKinnon**

04/13/15 #17221

Vanessa, none are the "most" accurate. They all make mistakes. Predicting local weather is like herding cats and the NWS doesn't really have the computing power to make more granular forecasts, unlike its european counterparts. I've found that understanding the meterology-speak of the NWS daily Forecast Discussion ([[http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=SEW|http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=SEW]]) COMBINED with the VHF marine forecast (Channel 4) is a very good foundation for marine-based activities. All of the terms in the Forecast Discussion are linked to pop-ups that explain the acronyms and terms.

A specific example of the inability to forecast for a specific location (granularity) would be Governor's Point. There are often opposing winds as you head north back across the mouth of Chuckanut Bay and a lot of whatcompaddlers have done a lot of swimming there.

Other sources (The Weather Channel, Accuweather, Wunderground, etc.) are very good at land-mass forecasts. But when it comes to salt water and the influences of the Pacific, I stick with the National Weather Service marine forecasts and daily Forecast Discussions. Also, Canadian marine meterology is good: [[http://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html|http://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html]] .

Learning about pressure slopes and systems, katabatic winds, and topographic and tidal influences to weather is not a bad idea. Most people don't bother thinking that since they have a VHF they'll survive. But I've been in situations where I knew that even an EPIRB and VHF would not get rescue to me in time if I immersed in our very cold water. Rescue might be 45 minutes to an hour after an initial mayday. I'm slender and doubt I could last that long. So I'm motivated to really understand the weather here as it plays through the seasons. Particular for when I am on the water.

And the last piece of advice, trust that little voice that says "oh, I don't think so, not today." Group dynamics often drown it out. Hope this helps a bit…

**Kevin Olney** \\
04/13/15 #17222

No forecast is is ever perfect but TJ nails it most of the time:

[[http://home.comcast.net/~wxtofly/loopallbasic.html?param=tenmwind&region=PNW&grid=w2|http://home.comcast.net/~wxtofly/loopallbasic.html?param=tenmwind®ion=PNW&grid=w2]]

Hour by hour for the upcoming day. The map and color coding are a little disorienting at first but you get the idea. Green=good, red=better, red "x"s=probably should stay home.

I also check the NOAA forecast local and regional info for comparison and context.

One rule I have is to always be prepared for the biggest conditions forecast (and then some..) the small craft advisory is there for a reason

KO

**michael.medler@…** \\
04/13/15 #17223

Hey Vanesa,\\
Here are a set of links I use. I believe these NOAA 1-kilometer grid cell forecasts are the engine behind many other forecasts you might see.

The whole region with good time steps:\\
[[http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/sew.php#tabs|http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/sew.php#tabs]]

Map based NOAA forecast just for Fairhaven:\\
[[http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.70863476178833&lon=-122.50099182128906&site=sew&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en#.VSxijNq9KSM|http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.70863476178833&lon=-122.50099182128906&site=sew&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en#.VSxijNq9KSM]]

Map based NOAA marine forecast just off Marine Park:\\
[[http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-122.53945&lat=48.71132|http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-122.53945&lat=48.71132]]

This is the one Kevin suggested. It is quite good for wind, especially after he updates it around 8:00 each morning:\\
[[http://wxtofly.net/loopallbasic.html?param=tenmwind&region=PNW&grid=w2|Loop - TJ's Bham Bay Forecast]]

\\
**David Scherrer** \\
04/13/15 #17224

Michael…hey are you writing this from your hospital bed?? Holy Mackerel.\\
D.

**Michael Lee** \\
04/13/15 #17225

Here's a question - do we, the Whatcom paddling community, have a responsibility to help educate people about boating/paddling safety? It could be as simple as a group of people heading across the bay without spray skirts on their kayaks. What should we do if we see a guy launching a plastic kayak at Marine Park in jeans and a cotton sweatshirt? What about the 300 lbs. guy with a cooler strapped to the stern of his tin dinghy? What if the wind is forecast to pick up in an hour? Do we shake our collective heads and go on with our downwind run?

I don't know the answer…but I've seen plenty of stupid stuff happen on the water (particularly during crabbing season), and with a few exceptions, I've ignored the foolishness and gone about my paddling business. If a child's involved, it's a no-brainer….but what about an adult? What's appropriate discourse? Any thoughts on our role in education?

**michael.medler@…**

04/13/15 #17226

Yep hip #2 is in place and have some serious sitting around in my near future.

**Reivers Dustin** \\
04/14/15 #17229

I've eased into the conversation when I saw folks with cotton clothes ("Death Fabric"), or other obvious clue that they weren't seeing the real picture. It has been obvious when they didn't want my input. So my thing is to try to go as far with it as any reasonable person. But the heart of the problem is that hazards that seasoned paddlers understand well are not obvious. For example, those two young men died off of Larrabee when it was not that big of a day. They saw people paddling all the time. There was just no way to help them see what I saw.

As far as Whatcompaddlers as a group - this is it. We just have this message board. I try a lot harder just because I was the last guy to talk to those two guys before they died. It stings that it turned out that way, but at least I tried. Through this board we can each in our own way try to help. It isn't about rules or threats, just offer the comments if you think you should. They are the ones living their life. I learned that I would feel a lot worse if I didn't make any effort.

Maybe race directors could nominate someone to do a breakout topic on paddling safety as part of each pre-race meeting. This is what happens at project meetings and pre-construction meetings. They do a safety topic, just to get people thinking and talking.

rd
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